Observations

Observations is a monthly advisor-centric column that touches on a variety of different current issues – financial market commentary, economic themes, corporate earnings and Tandem investment strategy updates.

OBSERVATIONS – March 16, 2020

There are a million superlatives one could use to describe the state of the financial markets, but to save time let’s just call it as we see it – markets have crashed. Over the past two weeks, we have witnessed some of the largest single day swings on both the upside and downside.  

OBSERVATIONS – February 1, 2020

There is a saying in the investment community that “risk happens fast”. This saying is often tied to another one when explaining the path of asset prices – “taking the escalator up and the elevator down”. The trading action among equity markets this past month could not make these sayings truer.

OBSERVATIONS – January 6, 2020

As the ball dropped in Times Square this past week, the mood on Wall Street could not have been any more different than a year ago. A chart showing the CNN Fear & Greed Index says everything you need to know about the state of the investor then and now.

OBSERVATIONS – December 9, 2019

Santa Claus has come to town! The ‘Santa Claus Rally” refers to a seasonal pattern that sees equity markets trade higher beginning in the back half of December through the first few days of January. This year Santa Claus took a page out of the retailers’ playbook and decided to spread his Christmas spirit early.

OBSERVATIONS – November 6, 2019

It’s probably a little too soon to announce that the coast is all clear, but that shouldn’t stop us from celebrating the S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ and Russell Mid-Cap setting all-time highs this past week. Small cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000, remain roughly 10% below their all-time that was set back in September 2018.

OBSERVATIONS – October 9, 2019

The Shakespeare quote that started off last month’s edition of Observations could’ve once again commenced this column. In fact, one could argue the “sound and fury” has intensified over the past couple of weeks leading to a slight downside move in the S&P 500, which has brought us back to where we stood 12 months ago.

OBSERVATIONS – September 6, 2019

I’m not sure I could’ve come up with a better way to sum up the stock market’s price action over the past four weeks. And honestly, it has been going on a whole lot longer. The past four weeks have just been a microcosm of the past 19 months.

OBSERVATIONS – August 13, 2019

Game on. That is what the Chinese declared last week after President Trump tweeted the United States would slap tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese imports starting on September 1st. The trade spat between the U.S. and China has officially been turned up a notch and financial markets around the world reacted in-kind.

OBSERVATIONS – June 27, 2019

The fear and volatility we entered the month with seemed to ebb as soon as we flipped the calendar. The VIX fell over 15% in the first week of June as the S&P 500 soared over 4%. And, just like that, the few opportunities we saw in May to put cash to work managed to dry up quickly.

OBSERVATIONS – June 1, 2019

Last month, we touched on how the most recent direction in stock prices has a way of setting market narrative. There was chatter that the business cycle was now a thing of the past and the odds of a Western country ever entering a recession going forward were remote, at best.

OBSERVATIONS – May 3, 2019

It is often said that “bull markets climb a wall of worry” and there was plenty to worry about after the market’s performance in the fourth quarter of last year – the never-ending trade negotiations, slowing global economic growth and declining corporate earnings, just to name a few.

OBSERVATIONS – April 1, 2019

The S&P 500 ended the quarter on a high note to lock in its third straight positive month and post a 14% return for Q1. U.S. equities are essentially back to where they were before December’s meltdown and remain 3.5% from its all-time high set in September of last year.

OBSERVATIONS – February 4, 2019

If you blinked, you might have missed it. The constant daily drubbing to end 2018 is all but a distant memory. It has been well documented that the S&P 500 posted its worst December performance since the United States was in the midst of the Great Depression in 1931 – down 9.18%.

OBSERVATIONS – January 5, 2019

2018 started and ended the same way – volatile. After the first 18 trading days of 2018, the S&P 500 had climbed 7.45%. In the last 18 trading days of the year, the S&P 500 fell 7.16%, and that was pretty much the end of the similarities between the two time periods.

OBSERVATIONS – December 7, 2018

What a difference a year makes! At this time last year, we were writing about the S&P 500 Total Return Index and the MSCI All-Country Index rising for the 13^th consecutive month, which at the time was the longest uninterrupted monthly streak on record.

OBSERVATIONS – November 5, 2018

The last market standing finally got knocked off its perch, as the S&P 500 declined 11.44% from peak to trough. Once the closing bell finally rung on Halloween, the S&P 500 logged its worst monthly performance since September 2011 – down nearly 7%.

OBSERVATIONS – October 3, 2018

Last month, we highlighted the noticeable divergence across global financial markets. Essentially the only asset class to make it back to its January high, and go on to set all-time highs, has been U.S. equities. Everything else – well, they haven’t come even close.

OBSERVATIONS – September 5, 2018

The S&P 500 managed to climb a global mountain of worry to exceed its prior high set on January 26^th. While almost every major asset class around the world seems to be coming unhinged, the domestic markets remain steadfast. And in a world of interconnectedness, it is even more surprising to see the divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

OBSERVATIONS – August 1, 2018

For most financial markets around the world, the past few weeks have brought a sense of calm and renewed complacency. Domestic and International equity markets ground higher throughout much of July. The VIX fell 20% in the face of a market that quietly marched upward.

OBSERVATIONS – November 5, 2018

The last market standing finally got knocked off its perch, as the S&P 500 declined 11.44% from peak to trough. Once the closing bell finally rung on Halloween, the S&P 500 logged its worst monthly performance since September 2011 – down nearly 7%.

OBSERVATIONS – October 3, 2018

Last month, we highlighted the noticeable divergence across global financial markets. Essentially the only asset class to make it back to its January high, and go on to set all-time highs, has been U.S. equities. Everything else – well, they haven’t come even close.

OBSERVATIONS – September 5, 2018

The S&P 500 managed to climb a global mountain of worry to exceed its prior high set on January 26^th. While almost every major asset class around the world seems to be coming unhinged, the domestic markets remain steadfast. And in a world of interconnectedness, it is even more surprising to see the divergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

OBSERVATIONS – August 1, 2018

For most financial markets around the world, the past few weeks have brought a sense of calm and renewed complacency. Domestic and International equity markets ground higher throughout much of July. The VIX fell 20% in the face of a market that quietly marched upward.

OBSERVATIONS – July 1, 2018

If you’re into symmetry, then you would find beauty in the S&P 500’s chart during the month of June. The index closed 0.48% higher for the month, but it was a near perfect return to May’s closing value as measured in both time and price.

OBSERVATIONS – June 1, 2018

U.S. equity markets looked poised to finally break out of several months of consolidation. Within the first two weeks of May, the VIX fell nearly 20%, while the S&P 500 gapped above April’s highs, the Russell 2000 got back to all-time highs and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained under 3%.

OBSERVATIONS – April 30, 2018

The resurgence of volatility has been on the forefront of everyone’s mind. And, April looked to be a continuation of this newfound volatility. On the very first trading day of the new quarter, the VIX blew out to an intraday high of 25.72, which represented a 28.79% increase over the previous close.

OBSERVATIONS – APRIL 3, 2018

March was a microcosm of the first quarter. The S&P 500 made its monthly high within the first third of the month. It then traded sharply lower, only to bounce back but not enough to close higher than where it started.

OBSERVATIONS – MARCH 2, 2018

Coming into February it was well documented how equity markets in the U.S. and around the world were shattering records daily. The low volatility and one-way nature of stocks led many financial pundits and high-profile money managers to claim this time is different….

OBSERVATIONS – FEBRUARY 1, 2018

January was certainly an exciting month. And as I write this column, the first couple days of February have been even more so. If it weren’t for the last few days in January, the S&P 500 was on track to annualize a return…

OBSERVATIONS – JANUARY 1, 2018

Go figure – one of the most volatile times in 2017 for the U.S. equity markets occurred in the last few minutes on the last day of the year to trade. Over the final 25 minutes, the S&P 500 dropped 12 points…..

READ PREVIOUS ‘OBSERVATIONS’ BY CLICKING THE BUTTON BELOW